Charles Mann
The Atlantic
March 2018
“It is as if humankind were packed into a bus
racing through an impenetrable fog. Somewhere ahead is a cliff: a calamitous
reversal of humanity’s fortunes. Nobody can see exactly where it is, but
everyone knows that at some point the bus will have to turn. Problem is,
Wizards and Prophets disagree about which way to yank the wheel. Each is
certain that following the other’s ideas will send the bus over the cliff. As
they squabble, the number of passengers keeps rising.”
Prophesies, be they secular or religious, are mostly matters of faith and hope, and finalities that are heavenly or hellish. The Wizards
of science and technology use evidence and offer predictive probabilities - a
better fit, I think, for what evidence shows is likely an undirected,
ever-changing universe. But as they say, even the reasoning of the Wizards can
be wrong, and new and better evidence keeps being found.... JEL
