An Unfinished Civil War
Inspires a Global Delusion
By James Pogue
Harper’s
March 2019
Numbers
from the article:
56million people in
South Africa
· 8% are white, own 72% of
the rural land
o
2.7million
are Afrikaners (of Dutch descent)
· 81% are black, own 4% of
rural land
o
5million
squatters
· 14million live in
extreme poverty
o
13,310
are white living in squatter camps
· 2017: 20,000 killed, 62
were white
Economic
Freedom Fighters (EFF) – Black dominated political party championing land redistribution
- 25 of 400 National Assembly Seats
- Leader Says: Have more black children as a political weapon.
- ANC Charter: “The Land Shall Be Shared Among Those Who Work It!”
- 1994, Whites Would Not Sell Land at Fair Market Prices
- Zimbabwe and Mozambique Land Redistribution Models Unacceptable
- Government of South Africa Prefers Individual Ownership, Direct State Ownership, Trusts, Communal Land Custodianship. But, doesn’t know how to get there without international outcry or shedding white blood. The latter of which would take the matter away from being about reaching economic reconciliation and equality and force the Western dominated world media to portray it as white genocide. A most unenviable position for GOSA.
Principles,
Key Factors:
Democracy
Rule of Law
Reconciliation
25% of Population Live
in Extreme Poverty
~ ~ ~
Just looking at the numbers above and comparing
them to the principles below them, I don’t see how South African society can
remain as it is indefinitely.
There can be no real or sustainable democracy,
rule of law or reconciliation until matters of the unequal distribution of
wealth, including land ownership, are resolved. Something must give.
Harper's
Democracy cannot go on if unequal wealth and
land distribution continues. To make things more equitable may require
autocratic means.
Rule of law cannot be maintained if 25% of the
population remains in extreme poverty.
Reconciliation has to mean doing something about
inequality.
Harper's
An American friend, a long-time expatriate resident
in South Africa, reacts to the Harper’s article
as follows:
The
African and European elites probably are colour-blind. The only colour they’ve
learned to recognize is the colour of money. But down at the bottom of the
scale, people translate money into racial politics – it’s more emotional.
…
Perhaps
the difficulties of establishing genuine democracy also lead back to what I
call the Vacuum Law throughout Africa. In the whole continent majorities are
not really represented, and small minorities in country after country take over
in various forms of dictatorship. Indeed, South Africa is probably the country
that comes a bit closer nowadays to tapping that majority view point in a
democratic dispensation, and so reconciliation and rational progress figure
high in most peoples’ agendas, when they are sober.
…
When
I listen to my white neighbours, ‘reconciliation’ is hardly what they
voice. They voice hatred. But people in
crowds and social occasions are likely to voice such dramatic poses. When
attitudes are measured more subtly, as done by the above Institute, a much more
moderate picture emerges. The same goes for the black community.
In modern times, generally, the pursuit of
wealth and power is usually pursued by any means legal. Then, when that fails illegal
means are legalized or actions are taken up outside of the law, overtly or covertly. In this pursuit the top and
bottom of society do not hesitate to use racial, tribal politics – emotion
trumps reason especially among the long-suffering, severely impoverished at the
bottom.
I may be wrong and my friend’s take is correct.
But I can’t help wondering if he is, in fact, wishfully, hopefully exaggerating
the notion that “when attitudes are measured subtly (as done by the South African Institute on Race Relations), a
much more moderate picture emerges. The same goes for the black community.” That his “mixture of loyalties” is less the
case than is a trembling gunpowder keg of emotion, especially among
impoverished and relatively powerless blacks. I hope my friend’s notion of a
continuation of reason, deliberation, moderation and patience will carry the
day.
Simon Roche
Whites will not take the initiative to
precipitate the last stand, if there is to be one as some white supremacists
call it. That is, to “fight it out, and
let’s die like men” as white South African reactionary Simon Roche puts it. The
whites have guns and passion but not enough bodies to survive a war of
attrition. They are forced to maintain a defensive strategy.
Blacks have already taken a stand, come up with
a strategy, and begun the battle. That is, just as they did in ousting
apartheid – organize, mobilize, then slowly, deliberatively, one open patch of
land, one farm, one act of violent protest or sabotage at a time.
The period from the National Party’s
implementation of apartheid in 1948 to Independence in 1994 covered 46 years.
It’s been 25 years since Independence. Black South Africans have time on their
side and they know it.
The ANC-dominated GOSA, for the time being, has
no choice but relegate itself the role of the good-faith face of the black
majority. When enough of the black insurgency measures mentioned achieve a
critical mass of carnage and/or economic decline, the government will be forced
to step in. In doing so they will try and take credit as the peace maker, ‘saving’
the whites from annihilation and declaring blacks the winners. It will then
position itself as the guiding force and administrator for restructuring and
redirecting the society, probably through some scheme of land ownership reform.
Now, all that said, s*** can happen. Events and
circumstances can emerge that defy reason and circumvent GOSA contingency
planning. Donald Rumsfeld called such unexpected factors “unknown unknowns”:
A combination of factors and circumstances may
come into being that push GOSA to take immediate, autocratic action. Either
side, black or white, could precipitate such a situation of urgency, such as suddenly
emerging and dire social or economic conditions they think are favorable to
their cause. Or, such circumstances could
just come together seemingly on their own and force the government’s hand. Such
forced autocratic methods would be the worst possible scenario and all bets
would be off.
Arriving at a turning point seems to be inevitable.
GOSA cannot put off some form of intervention, be it autocratic or
parliamentary. Their hand, like the hand of the white apartheid government in
1993-1994, will likely be forced by the black majority’s strategy. Then,
true democracy, rule of law and, most important of all, reconciliation, will be within reach.
