Quacks and Quakes - Fox News Earthquake "Expert" Exposed as Crank

UPDATE:



USGS Hourly Global Earthquake Tracker:  Click here

ORIGNAL POST:

                                                                                                As of March 30, 2011



Quacks and Quakes by Donald Prothero, Skeptic, March 30, 2011.  Also see Prothero's Quakes and Fakes where he discusses the geophysical and gelogical details of the March 11 earthquake in Japan and the misinformation and myths about it, including that of the "end-of-the-world" doomsayers.

In "Quacks and Quakes" author and widely respected geologist and palaeontologist Donald R. Prothero exposes one of Fox News' "experts," Jim Berkland, and Berkland's pseudo-science for predicting earthquakes.  Berkland called for the "Big One" in California between March 19-26 during the "Supermoon".  Didn't happen.  Berkland hasn't been back on Fox.

Prothero's latest book, Catastrophes!:  Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Tornadoes, and other Earth-Shattering Disasters, published earlier this month, presents the facts and science of these natural disasters.

With all the misinformation and pseudo-science being presented as fact regarding the March 11 disaster in Japan, it might be a good time to remind ourselves of why people seem so prone to believe such unreasonable claims.  Michael Shermer presents a pretty good take on the reasons in his book Why People Believe Weird Things:  Pseudoscience, Superstition and Other Confusions of our Time (2002).

NOTE:  I have referred to the work of Prothero in earlier posts for evidence supporting evolutionary theory:  Evolution:  What the Fossils Say and Why It Matters, illustrated by Carl Buell (2007).

From Skeptic, March 30, 2011:  DR. DONALD R. PROTHERO is Professor of Geology at Occidental College in Los Angeles, and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. He earned M.A., M.Phil., and Ph.D. degrees in geological sciences from Columbia University in 1982, and a B.A. in geology and biology (highest honors, Phi Beta Kappa) from the University of California, Riverside. He is currently the author, co-author, editor, or co-editor of 25 books and over 250 scientific papers, including five leading geology textbooks and three trade books as well as edited symposium volumes and other technical works. He is on the editorial board of Skeptic magazine, and in the past has served as an associate or technical editor for Geology, Paleobiology and Journal of Paleontology. He is a Fellow of the Geological Society of America, the Paleontological Society, and the Linnaean Society of London, and has also received fellowships from the Guggenheim Foundation and the National Science Foundation. He has served as the Vice President of the Pacific Section of SEPM (Society of Sedimentary Geology), and five years as the Program Chair for the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology. In 1991, he received the Schuchert Award of the Paleontological Society for the outstanding paleontologist under the age of 40. He has also been featured on several television documentaries, including episodes of Paleoworld (BBC), Prehistoric Monsters Revealed (History Channel), Entelodon and Hyaenodon (National Geographic Channel) and Walking with Prehistoric Beasts (BBC).

First Humans In The Americas 15,500BP - New Evidence

Arrowheads Found in Texas Dial Back Arrival of Humans in America

 

Some of the artifacts from the 15,500-year-old horizon - Michael R. Waters

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



Above map and following excerpt from The Oldest Americans - An Introduction by George Weber:

The (above) routes into America were available to the intrepid and hardy Pleistocene and early Holocene traveler. The routes were undoubtedly used (although we cannot be sure which ones and by whom) and that from as early as 30,000 years ago. The people who set up camp at Monte Verde in Chile, for example, had to enter America by one of the routes or a combination of them.

(a) Bering Straight route (blue)

The Bering Strait before 10,000 years ago was an icy and stormy waterway and something for only the most fearless boat crew to attempt. Every so often, as the climate became colder and sea levels fell, the Strait would turn into dry land and could be crossed on foot by people with a well-established tradition of arctic survival.

Libya Intervention: Are African Leaders' Objections Justified, Credible?

UPDATE 2 Jacob Zuma criticises military action in Libya, BBC, July 18, 2011  Though most of the article deals with UK PM David Cameron's visit to RSA and UK-RSA trade relations, the first few paragraphs addresses Zuma's position on the situation in Libya.  Specifically, RSA President Jacob Zuma is calling for a negotiated settlement of the crisis in Libya, including the future of Gadaffi.  I have little doubt that Gaddafi is only buying time to see if there is any way at all he can hang on to power, but his expressed interest in giving negotiations a chance should be honored despite the fact he refused to give Libyan opposition a chance to negotiate.


I disagree with Zuma's belief that the NATO bombings are not helping the political situation in Libya.  Surely he does not believe that stopping the bombing would encourage Gadaffi to take negotiations more seriously.  The current course is the best - keep providing military support to the revolutionaries while keeping the door open to and allowing negotiations to commence simultaneously.


UPDATE  Rwanda Backs US Strikes on Libya  Rwanda's president Paul Kagame supports coalition raids on Libya.  Cites the international community's failure to intervene to prevent the genocide that took place in his country in 1994.

ORIGINAL POST:

Libya: Museveni, Mugabe and Zuma condemn air strikes
Museveni blasts West over Libya attack

Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe object to a multi-national force protecting civilians in Libya.  Libya's leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi threatens to go door to door and kill those who have participated in a call for government reform and democracy.  Museveni, Mugabe and other African leaders' objections pertain to what they see as a lack of fairness, disrespect for sovereignty and the malevolent ulterior motives of the intervening coalition.

Are their objections justified?  What moral high ground do they occupy, if any, from which to speak out about unfairness, disrespect and ulterior motivations?

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood - Honest Player Or Playing At Honesty To Buy Time? A Comment On "American Gullibility"

"Have more than thou showest, speak less than thou knowest." - The Fool to Lear, King Lear, Act I, Scene iv

There is something peculiar about Western, and in particular American, approaches to international relations.  Our leaders have a tendency to trust first, then only change their mind if and only if they must.  This also a deeply ingrained belief among America's leaders that if a promise is in writing, such as a treaty or cease-fire or a non-aggression pact, and it has been signed, then it is binding and assumed that the signatories will comply with its terms.  Why is this?

Global Population 10.5 Billion By 2050 - Will Our Species' Primary Evolutionary Strategy, Cultural Adaptation, Succeed Against This Challenge?

UPDATE:  Census Update: What the World Will Look Like in 2050, Time Magazine, June 30, 2011
Now We Are Seven Billion, The Economist, October 22, 2011

ORIGINAL POST:
The Answer:  We have no option but rely on it.  But what choices will it force us to make and who will make them?  No-one knows if our efforts will succeed.  For we humans, as individuals and as a species, live our lives forward into uncertainty based on what are most often good but always imperfect calculated risks.  Background:  Cultural Evolution, Phase II - Establishing A Unified Worldview  See also:  Earth's Senior Population Is Increasing - So What?

Clearly, the major choices and actions that must be taken are in the following areas:

An emerging global civilization and morality
The meaning and value we continue to place on human life
Addressing the unequal spread of Earth's wealth, power and privilege
Addressing global poverty
Protecting and preserving the biosphere

UPDATE - Population 7 Billion by End of 2011  Excerpts from the Update Link:

"'The exertions that men find it necessary to make, in order to support themselves or families, frequently awaken faculties that might otherwise have lain for ever dormant, and it has been commonly remarked that new and extraordinary situations generally create minds adequate to grapple with the difficulties in which they are involved.'" - Thomas Malthus

"... the problem that needs solving is poverty and lack of infrastructure, not overpopulation."  ...  "The central challenge for the future of people and the planet is how to raise more of us out of poverty—the slum dwellers in Delhi, the subsistence farmers in Rwanda—while reducing the impact each of us has on the planet."

Swaziland Dissent - What Would King Sobhuza II Do?

UPDATE 
Swaziland: Government Coffers Are Running Dry, UN-IRIN Report, May 16, 2011
A King At Bay:  Africa's Last Absolute Monarchy May Be Falling Apart, The Economist, July 30, 2011

ORIGINAL POST
I lived and worked in the Kingdom of Swaziland, Southern Africa for three years in the early 1980s.  King Sobhuza II, who became Ngwenyama and ascended to the Swazi throne in 1921, was still king in 1980 when I arrived to teach science in a rural government high school.  This was a wonderful experience that greatly changed my life and for which I remain sincerely grateful.

King Sobhuza II (1899-1982)



I attended Sobhuza II's Diamond Jubilee in late 1981 at Somhlolo Stadium and joined all Swazis in mourning following his death on August 21, 1982.  Sobhuza II was a charismatic, beloved leader of his people and led them most ably through most of the 20th Century - the World Depression of the 1930s, World War II, and finally to independence from Britain in 1968.

His greatest strength was his personal leadership and the path of national development he set for Swaziland - adopt the best practices from the modern, Western world and retain the best of Swazi traditions and culture.  He took his stewardship of the nation, its people and Swazi culture seriously.  One result of this was his 1973 repeal of the constitution, dissolving of parliament and assumption of absolute power claiming that the balance between outside influences and Swazi traditions had tipped too far toward Westernization.  A new parliament was convened in 1979.

London Engineering Professor, Who's Also An Islamic Cleric, Threatened With Death For Supporting Evolution

UPDATE:
UK Cleric Leaves Mosque Over Evolution by Andrew Carey, CNN, March 21, 2011

London Imam Subjected to Death Threats for Supporting Evolution and Women's Rights by Rowenna Davis, The Guardian, March 6, 2011.  Excerpts follow:

"Dr Usama Hasan, vice-chairman at Leyton mosque and a senior lecturer in engineering at Middlesex University, ceased delivering Friday prayers after 25 years of service when 50 Muslim protesters disrupted his lecture by handing out leaflets against him and shouting in the mosque for his execution."
...
"Harun Yahya, a popular Islamic creationist scholar from Turkey, begins a UK tour in London on Monday, adding to the debate. Last December Salir al-Sadlan, a senior Saudi-based scholar Salir al-Sadlan, said Muslims shouldn't pray behind someone who believed in evolution in a speech at Green Lanes mosque in Birmingham."
...
"An online petition against Hasan has apparently attracted 1,100 signatories, although they are not listed publicly. The petition says they are 'horrified' by his views on evolution and call for him to be removed before the mosque becomes a 'hotbed of modernist extremism'."
...
"Inayat Bunglawala, chair of Muslims4UK, a group promoting Muslim engagement in British society, said there was 'widespread ignorance' about evolution among the Muslim community. 'Many traditional imams are grounded in ancient books in Arabic but have very little grounding in science. I find it staggering how they can be so strongly opposed to evolution without reading about it. That seems to be opposite of the very first commandment of the Qur'an, which is to read,' Bunglawala said."

See also:  Scientist Imam Threatened Over Darwinist Views by Tom Peck and Jerome Taylor, The Independent, March 5, 2011.

COMMENT:  Many creationists want secularists to engage them in a civil discussion in the hope of allowing ample space among the public for a tolerance of both religious belief and scientific truth.  Many do not, as this article exemplifies.  Ever heard of a secularist calling for the death of someone because they supported creationism?  Neither have I....

My Original Post:  Is There A Will To Believe? - Creationism's Challenge To Evolutionary Theory Outside The US

Did Earliest Life Forms Arrive Here Via Meteorites? - An Example Of The Growth Of Scientific Knowledge

Quackery?  Maybe, maybe not.  This linked article is an example of how scientific/secular truth is initiated and responded to.  First, a discovery is given meaning - in this case, electromicroscopic findings inside meteorites are presented to support a conjecture or provisional scientific theory regarding the extra-terrestrial origin of life on Earth.  Such conjectures are presented to the scientific community for confirmation as truth.  Members of this community typically try to confirm or refute the conjecture by replicating its experimental or observational evidence and methods, and by testing the reasoning accompanying it.  The link at the bottom of this post is one effort to refute the evidence presented to support the conjecture of life's extra-terrestrial origins.

The strength of scientific truths vary in terms of how well or ill they withstand efforts to refute them.  The process of scientific conjecture and refutation continues regarding the theory of Life's origins, as it does with all theories that make up scientific knowledge.  So far, the supporting evidence and explanatory power of the theory of panspermia, that life first appeared extra-terrestrially, has not been sufficient to trump the evidence and explanatory power supporting other scientific explanations of the origin of life on Earth.  Foremost among competing scientific theories of life's origins on Earth is abiogenesis or biopoesis, that life on Earth arose from Earth's inorganic matter.

Counterpoint - Climate Models Are Unreliable Therefore Science Cannot Prove Human Activity Causes Global Warming

UPDATE:  A credible challenge to one of the provisional truths of science:

A Climate Of Belief - The Claim That Anthropogenic CO2 is Responsible for the Current Warming of Earth Climate is Scientifically Unsupportable Because Climate Models are Unreliable by Patrick Frank, Skeptic Vol 14(1), 2008.

More on global warming:  Scientists Did NOT Fudge Data To Prove Global Warming, February 24, 2011.  See also The Storms Over Climate Change.

Philosophy - Stephen Hawking And Robert Wright Say It's Useless. Is It?

The value of philosophy is to be sought largely in its very uncertainty.  He who has no tincture of philosophy goes through life imprisoned in the prejudices derived from common sense, from the habitual beliefs of his age or his nation, and from convictions which have grown up in his mind without the cooperation or consent of his deliberate reason.  As soon as we begin to philosophize, on the contrary, we find that even the most everyday things lead to problems to which only very incomplete answers can be given.  Philosophy, though unable to tell us with certainty what is the true answer to the doubt which it raises, is able to suggest many possibilities which enlarge our thoughts and free them from the tyranny of custom.  – Bertrand Russell



UPDATE
Is America Philosophical? by Carlo Romano, The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 20, 2012
Does Philosophy Matter? by Stanley Fish, The New York Times, The Opinion Pages, August 1, 2011
Does Philosophy Matter? (Part Two) by Stanley Fish, The New York Times, The Opinion Pages, August 8, 2010
Putting Philosophy to the Test:  A New Breed of Thinkers Takes the Search for Wisdom to the Streets by David Menconi, Standford Magazine, September/October 2011
A Survey and an Assertion: Twelve Potted Philosophers and A Theory fo Human Values by Carlin Romano, The American Scholar, Summer 2011
Freud as Philosopher by Gordon Marino, The New York Times, The Opinion Pages-Opinionator, October 9, 2011
The Islamic Scholar Who Gave Us Modern Philosophy by Robert Pasnau, Humanities, November/December 2011
Interview with Peter Boghossian by Paul Pardi, Philospophy News Service, December 5, 2011

ORIGINAL POST
Hawking Contra Philosophy (Jan/Feb 2011) by Christoper Norris in Philosophy Now:  A Magazine of Ideas

A good article worthy of more than the one read I've given it so far.  I took it to say:  Stephen:  Here are some good reasons to brush up your modern philosophy.  Mind that you don't speculate yourself into absolute falsity.

Then there's Robert Wright, author of a couple of good books - The Moral Animal and The Evolution of God:

Beyond Intellectualism (Feb 14, 2011) by Robert Wright  in The American Prospect:  Liberal Intelligence

Wright's view of philosophy seems a bit cocksure for my taste.  His strong adherence to "bedrock pragmatism" is a clear nod to his belief in the primacy of relativism and absolutism for solving problems. 

However, if we all only thought this way there would be little chance Humankind's morality would evolve and a good likelihood our primary evolutionary survival mechanism - cultural adaption via imagination, invention and innovation - would quickly stagnate, wither and be given up.  A fatal outcome for all of us.  We would quickly become dependent upon short-term, here-and-now solutions and the certainty of fixes that worked in yesterday's present.  When confronted with today's and tomorrow's novel challenges, personal or global, we would only be armed with short term fixes (relativism) or one-solution-fits-all dogma (absolutism).  The political conservatism so popular in the US currently is a good example of this approach to society.

It would be foolish to not be pragmatic and clobber many problems with the hammer of certainty when that solution is best.  Many of our problems, again personally and globally, seem fairly obviously suited to this approach.  But not all of them, and certainly not the most difficult problems of humankind and the biosphere. 

To dismiss the ceaseless, exploratory probing of philosophy as a useless waste of time is short-sighted and worse, a turning of a blind eye toward the very essence of Life, Nature and the Universe - change.  Relying exclusively on relative and absolute solutions for ever-evolving problems is foolish and can be fatal.  "Evolve or die," in the case of Humankind, refers to our use of successful solutions and responses for challenges, be they pragmatic or out-of-the-box.  We need both.

We all must at times be pragmatic.  But for most of my living and thinking I am fortunate to be able to prefer and use gray and other muted, nuanced tones when it comes to truth.  Such an approach makes things more difficult and time-consuming but my efforts and outcomes are more worthwhile and satisfying in that they are more truthful, reliable and useful.

What say you, valued reader?

Is There A Will To Believe? - Creationism's Challenge To Evolutionary Theory Outside The US

“Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones."

- Bertrand Russell

Photos by J. Lassiter, Timbuktu, Mali, 2006

UPDATE:
Timbuktu Shrines Damaged By Mali Ansar Dine Islamists, BBC, June 30, 2012
Does Islam Stand Against Science?, The Chronicle Review, The Chronicle of Higher Education, June 19, 2011
In France, A Muslim Offensive Against Evolution, Time Magazine, June 2,2011
Islamist Student Group Said to Terrorize Pakistan Campuses, The Los Angeles Times, July 22, 2011
An Old Earth For All Muslims: But How Does Evolution Fit In? by Salman Hameed, Earth Magazine, October 21, 2011

ORIGINAL POST
Not only are many of us satisfied with bad grounds for belief in the absence or ignorance of good ones, many others continue to ignore or condemn the good grounds for disbelief that exsist.

Evolution Abroad: Creationism Evolves in Science Classrooms Around the Globe Scientific American March 3, 2011

Meanwhile back in the US:

New Challenges for Evolution Education (in the US) Scientific American February 28, 2011

Côte d'Ivoire - Is Current Crisis A Threat To West African Stability?

Though the problem is certainly harmful to in-country Ivorians, I am not convinced like the ICG that the crisis in Ivory Coast threatens the stability of the entire West African sub-region.

Clearly, Liberia and Sierra Leone do not have the economic clout of CI, the crises that they underwent in 1990s are the only real recent precedents to consider.  Both of these tragedies had important ramifications for neighboring countries in the sub-region but they led to nothing close to widespread instability.

A blow to CI's economic power and central government stability would no doubt negatively effect the large number of expatriate farm laborers in CI.  However, there is little to support a view that it would have a destabilizing impact on the surrounding nations and beyond in the sub-region.

In the ICG's report are we once again seeing an NGO exaggerate in order to draw attention to a crisis in order to provoke greater international action, or, again, an unjustified Western view of Africa as a country - the United States of Africa - that links and minimizes the importance of each African nation-state?

Still, the ICG's recommendations for resolving the crisis in CI are on target....

Côte d'Ivoire: Is War the Only Option? a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).  [Begun in 1996 and based in Brussels, the ICG describes itself as "an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization committed to preventing and revolving deadly conflict."]

Creationism vs. Evolution - An Update

UPDATE 2
 "On Evolution, Can Religion Evolve?," The Washington Post, On Faith, August 23, 2011

UPDATE
Polling Creationism and Evolution Around the World:

"A new poll conducted by Ipsos for Reuters News in twenty-four countries found that 41% of respondents identified themselves as "evolutionists" and 28% as "creationists," with 31% indicating that they "simply don't know what to believe," according to a press release issued by Ipsos on April 25, 2011."
...
"The "evolutionist" view was most popular in Sweden (68%), Germany (65%), and China (64%), with the United States ranking 18th (28%), between Mexico (34%) and Russia (26%); the "creationist" view was most popular in Saudi Arabia (75%), Turkey (60%), and Indonesia (57%), with the United States ranking 6th (40%), between Brazil (47%) and Russia (34%)."
...
"Consistently with previous polls, in the United States, acceptance of evolution was higher among respondents who were younger, with a higher level of household income, and with a higher level of education. Gender was not particularly important, however: the difference between male and female respondents in the United States was no more than 2%."

Supreme Being(s), the Afterlife and Evolution:
"Half of global citizens (51%) surveyed believe there is some form of ‘divine entity’: either a 'God or Supreme Being' (45%) or 'many Gods or Supreme Beings' (6%). This compares with two in ten (18%) who 'don’t believe in God/Gods/Supreme Being/Beings' and another three in ten (30%) who are 'undecided' of which 17% say 'sometimes I believe, but sometimes I don’t' and another 13% say 'I’m not sure if I believe'."
...
"Just over half of global citizens (51%) say they believe in some form of afterlife: one quarter (23%) believe in an afterlife 'but not specifically in a heaven or hell', two in ten (19%) believe 'you go to heaven or hell', another 7% believe 'you are ultimately reincarnated' and 2% believe in 'heaven but not hell'. Alternatively, one quarter (23%) say 'you simply cease to exist' whereas another quarter (26%) say they 'don’t know what happens'."

Human Evolution
Much debate has focused on whether humans were the products of either a spiritual force creation or the force of nature by way of a gradual evolution.

• Four in ten (41%) identify as “as 'evolutionist's' and believe that human beings were in fact created over a long period of time of evolution growing into fully formed human beings they are today from lower species such as apes.” Those most likely to believe in this are from Sweden (68%), Germany (65%), China (64%), Belgium (61%) and Japan (60%).
• Three in ten (28%) global citizens refer to themselves as “creationists and believe that human beings were in fact created by a spiritual force such as the God they believe in and do not believe that the origin of man came from evolving from other species such as apes” led by those from Saudi Arabia (75%), Turkey (60%), Indonesia (57%), South Africa (56%) and Brazil (47%).
• Almost one third (31%) of the global population indicate they “simply don't know what to believe and sometimes agree or disagree with theories and ideas put forward by both creationists and evolutionists”. Those from Russia (40%) are most likely to be unsure followed by those from Italy (39%), Argentina (38%), Poland (37%), Spain (37%) and France (36%).

ORIGINAL POST
This non-issue will likely be with us for quite some time.  Creationists say the theory of evolution is "flawed," is "only a theory," does not "disprove" creationism.  Evolutionists say the evidence overwhelmingly justifies acceptance of the theory of evolution when compared to the evidence and reasoning of religion; statements like "only a theory" show an ignorance of scientific "theory."

Science does not claim or attempt to disprove creationism.  The onus of proof rests with the proponents of creationism, not those who refuse to accept it because it lacks a well-reasoned argument or convincing evidence.  It is nonsense to require others to disprove something you have not proven in the first place but have merely asserted to be true.

From Non Sequitur by Wiley Miller

Science supports explanatory models that provide reasonably accurate accounts of evidence, observations and experiments.  Scientific models produce a truth that is far more useful for providing for humankind's basic needs, including solving the problems of living and of the biosphere, compared to models based on belief, faith and religious tradition.

Nevertheless, creationists in the US ceaselessly try to discredit evolutionary theory, the bedrock of biological sciences, and insist that religious faith in creationism (currently under the guise of "intelligent design") be taught in science classrooms.

Regrettably, this will be a long drawn out struggle over a non-issue.  It will continue to turn otherwise good young minds away from science and distract scientific efforts at solving the technological, medical and other challenges of modern life.  Equally ominous, it will keep our leaders (politicians), who control our vast weapons arsenals and treasure, praying to deities for guidance on secular problems and courting the votes of the religious.

From Non Sequitur by Wiley Miller

Stay informed and speak up for the teaching of evolutionary theory in science classrooms.  Religion has no place in the science classroom.  Here is some good material from Scientific American for understanding the problem:

Creationism vs. Evolution: The controversy over evolution rages on. Win all your debates against creationists with the science in our special report.  Scientific American, September 10, 2008

Creationism Controversy: State by State Interactive Map (Updated)  Scientific American, March 2, 2011

Can religious teachings prove evolution to be true?, BBC, July 5, 2011

Peace Corps Celebrates 50th Anniversary! - March 1, 2011

Peace Corps - A 50 Year Legacy At Home And Abroad

Peace Corps Home Page

Nine Sky-Is-Falling US Foreign Policy Clichés - Plus One More

The article below is worth a read.  Regrettably, the author did not include one I think he should have - one I hope we can also say so long to, sooner rather than later:  "10. The world expects the US to take a leadership role.  Therefore, the US has a mandate to force the world to do everything the US way or else the sky will fall."  See for example:

1. Africa & US Policy - Insisting On A Strong Central Government In Somalia Prolongs Suffering Of Somali People
2. Africa & US Policy - Ethiopia On The Frontline Of A "Clash Of Civilizations"?
3. The Delusions Of American Foreign Policy
4. "Unknown Knowns" - Is The Current Flood Of Information Drowning Our Ability To Find Meaning?

Here's the article's link and its list of the nine clichés:

So Long, Chicken Little: The 9 Most Annoying Sky-Is-Falling Clichés in American Foreign Policy by Michael Lind in Foreign Policy, March/April 2011

1. A nuclear bomb will go off in a U.S. city in the next 10 years.
2. The world must adapt quickly to the end of fossil fuels.
3. Europeans are pacifists.
4. The rain forests are about to disappear.
5. The coming global pandemic.
6. America is losing the high-speed rail race.
7. Climate change will cause mass migration.
8. Water-sharing can bring peace to the Middle East.
9. The nation-state is dead.

Regrettably, #4 makes no mention of the impact of converting rain forests to secondary forests on plant and animal habitats, world weather patterns, or unknown unknowns.  Also, #9 makes no mention of the problems caused by nation-states in terms of ethnic relations, global peace, regional and sub-regional integration, and water rights such as access to and control of the Nile by competing nation-states Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.  See Nile Water Agreement.

Scientists Did NOT Fudge Data To Help Prove Global Warming

UPDATE
Global Warming Skeptic Changes His Tune - By Doing The Science Himself by Donald Prothero, April 3, 2011, Skepticblog
"The Denial of Global Warming", excerpt from The Merchants of Doubt:  How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway, 2011

ORIGINAL POST
Contrary to the much ballyhooed outcry of no-climate-change, dominate-and-plunder-the-earth conservative media windbags and many Republicans, an investigation requested by Oklahoma Republican Senator Daniel Inhofe found that scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admininistration did not manipulate data to bolster evidence supporting global warming.  In the following report the US Commerce Department joined the British House of Commons, Pennsylvania State University, the InterAcademy Council, and the National Research Council in exonerating the NOAA scientists:  Scientists Are Cleared of Misuse of Data

African Culture and the Emerging Global Morality and Civilization

The following paper was originally presented at the Society of Research on African Cultures (SORAC) Conference on Internalist and Externalist Interpretations of African Culture and History, Montclair State University, New Jersey, November 2002.  Keynote Speakers included acclaimed African historian and author Professor Ali Mazrui and American University economics Professor George B. N. Ayittey, author of Indigenous African Institutions (1991) and other books on Africa.

African Culture and Its Influence on the Continent’s

Internal Initiatives and External Relations[1]

James E. Lassiter

This paper examines the writings of African scholars[2] and commentators on what they regard to be widespread sub-Saharan African cultural values and processes of social and psychological adaptation.  A consideration of these values and processes is, I believe, the best place to begin a new and more successful search for solutions to Africa’s problems.[3]  From their writings it can be concluded that in order for African societies and nations to function, sustain themselves and prosper, a balance must be maintained between the forces and needs of social groups, individuals and leaders.  Unless such a balance is consistently maintained over a significant period of time, African societies neither function effectively nor sustain themselves in the face of internal change and exotic influences.  Further, without this balance, African nations will not succeed in addressing their major problems of insecurity, poverty and under-employment and fall further behind economically in the global community.  This paper provides a detailed consideration of the forces exerted by African social groups, the needs and responses of individuals, and the role of African leaders who exercise authority.  Suggestions are made for achieving and maintaining a balance between these entities and processes.  Suggestions are also made for re-focusing the study of African social, cultural and psychological characteristics and the application of this reinvented approach to helping solve practical problems on the continent.

Africa’s Biggest Problem is its Solutions

Consideration of social and cultural factors too often takes a back seat to political, economic, diplomatic, legal and military approaches when it comes to identifying and addressing Africa’s problems.  It often appears that the proponents of these preferred approaches, inside and outside Africa, believe that if they can devise an appropriate political theory, financially stimulate African economies in just the right way, bind the instruments of African governance through international law or conventions, draft an air-tight treaty or establish military control or a regional balance of power, the problems of Africa would at last be solved.  Granted, many of these solutions have helped some of the nations and peoples of Africa.  However, it is apparent that after over four decades of independence that unifying political theory, binding legal language, Nobel Prize-winning economic formula, diplomat-led peace initiative or key military stratagem has not been found and Africa’s problems have remained the same or gotten worse.  In fact, since independence, many African leaders, foreign development “experts”, international donors and lenders, and arm-twisting diplomats have inundated the continent with development white elephants, crippling debt[4] and thereby impeded African achievement or contributed to African societal collapse.  Despite their carefully worded espousals of good intent and partnership, all have helped bring Africa into the 21^st century rife with poverty and under-employment.  Clearly, new internal and external approaches to Africa’s problems are long over-due.

Africa & US Policy - Insisting On A Strong Central Government In Somalia Prolongs Suffering Of Somali People

UPDATE
Kenya's Dadaab Camp: Aid Agencies Make Appeal, BBC, July 12, 2012.  Dadaab is now home to nearly a half million refugees, most of whom are from Somalia.  From the link:  "Nigel Tricks, head of Oxfam in Kenya, said: 'Refugee camps are only temporary solutions and the situation is increasingly untenable. Funds are needed now to save lives, but we can't keep pumping money in year after year while the camp keeps getting bigger. A change in approach is urgently needed. However, right now, the world has an obligation not to turn its back on Dadaab and the needs of the people there.'"

ORIGINAL POST
I interviewed thousands of Somali refugees in 23 African countries while serving as the assistant immigration attaché in the US Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya from 1996-1998.  I then supervised teams of US refugee officers on circuit rides throughout Africa from 1998-2007 where we also interviewed Somali refugee individuals and families, as well as other nationalities.  This work required extensive and detailed knowledge of the social and cultural aspects of all the Somali clans, their inter-clan relationships and their relationships to the central government in Mogadishu prior and subsequent to the fall of Siad Barre in 1991.

The legal framework for the interviews required an analysis of the need for protection of the principal on each case, whether the harm the principal claimed met the US definition of persecution, and who the alleged persecutors were and why they harmed the principal.  Other factors such as the credibility of the principle's interview testimony, whether s/he was barred from resettlement in the US, and whether s/he was otherwise admissible to the US were also considered.

Generally, the cases involved members of the largest, most powerful and most heavily-armed clans persecuting members of smaller less powerful clans and even less powerful minority ethnic groups in Somalia.  However, in the state of anarchy that has prevailed in Somalia since 1991, every possible clan-to-clan, persecutor-to-victim relationship occurred and was presented in the cases.  The atrocities credibility presented by the principals were among the most ghastly and horrific imaginable.  Although the brutality of the violence in Somalia was less in scale compared to the numbers killed during the Holocaust of World War II and the Rwandan genocide of 1994, it equaled and in some cases surpassed these two hellish nightmares of humanity in terms of viciousness.  In many ways the harm inflicted between various Somali clans, sub-clans and minority groups equaled the macabre violence that my officers and I encountered in the refugee cases of Liberians and Sierra Leoneans who were brutally persecuted during in the 1990s.  The personal accounts of torture, including rape, and murder the refugees narrated to me still resonate.

As a sub-Saharan Africanist the one thing that has always struck me most about Somalia is that of all the 53 nations of Africa, it is the one country least likely to succeed as a nation-state using the strong central government European model.  With the exception of the Somali Bantu and the Barawans and Benadiri minority groups, most members of the Somali clans, which taken collectively form a huge majority in Somalia, speak one language, engage in a similar pastoral economy, and are fairly homogeneous culturally.  Although this would lead one to think that such a majority should be able to lead the formation of and sustain a European-style nation-state.  This has not happened.  To appreciate the social and cultural complexity of Somalia and the Somali people see the following diagram:

The past twenty years of efforts to reconstitute the Somali Democratic Republic that was formed in 1969 have failed for one primary reason - the leaders of Somali clan social organization and it alliance dynamics, something most suited to a pastoral economy, have had no external impetus or internal reason to change their sociopolitical behavior or cede power to a strong central government located in the capital.

"Unknown Knowns" - Is The Current Flood Of Information Drowning Our Ability To Find Meaning?

UPDATE
Big Data's Parallel Universe Brings Fears, And A Thrill by Dennis Overbye, The New York Times, Science, June 4, 2012
The Age Of Big Data, by Steve Lohr, The New York Times, Sunday Review, The Opinion Pages, February 11, 2012
The Elusive Big Idea by Neal Gabler, The New York Times, Sunday Review, Opinion Pages, August 13, 2011
The Theory of Everything (Sort Of) by Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times, Sunday Review, Opinion Pages, August 13, 2011
"Explaining it All:  How We Became the Center of the Universe," The Beginning of Infinity:  Explanations that Transform the World by David Deutsch reviewed by David Albert, The New York Times, Sunday Book Review, August 12, 2011
"Information Is Cheap, Meaning Is Expensive" by George Dyson, The European, October 17, 2011
So What Do We Do With All This Data?, Smithsonian.com, Innovations, January 23, 2011

ORIGINAL POST
Does it matter?  For example, does it matter when our leaders take major actions risking our citizens' blood and nation's treasure after they ignore meanings and facts that must be derived from raw information?  Is such leadership wise?

Former US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld:

"[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know."

But, Rumsfeld failed to mention that there are also what I call "unknown knowns" - that is to say things about which we have a lot of information but to which we have not yet given meaning and therefore do not adequately understand.

One could well argue that George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Rumsfeld waged war against Iraq based on "unknown knowns."  That is, they had a lot of information about Iraqi history and culture but did not analyze it enough or give it meaning.  Or, they just chose to ignore the meaningful knowledge that had been provided them.

Further Evidence For Origins Of Humans Walking Upright

From National Geographic



"Lucy" Was No Swinger, Walked Like Us, Fossil Suggests
Fossil Suggests Lucy Had The First Modern Foot
These Bones Were Made For Walking
Fossil Find Puts "Lucy" Story On Firm Footing
Ancient Footprints Show Humans-Like Walking Began Nearly Four Million Years Ago

"Freedom Day?" - Lincoln & Darwin Were Born On February 12, 1809

 

  Lincoln in 1865, age 56    Darwin in 1869, age 60

Happy Darwin Day!  Tell US House to Support Darwin Day!  This link encourages support for a US House of Representatives bill to honor Charles Darwin who was born on February 12, 1809.  Here's the direct link you can use to contact and encourage your Congressman to support the bill - Darwin Day.

February 12, 1809, is also the birthday of Abraham Lincoln, the US's 16th president (1861-1865).

I can think of no other persons in the modern era who have done more for human freedom than Lincoln and Darwin.  Lincoln was the steady hand at the tiller during the US's most trying crisis, the Civil War.  His stance against slavery and leadership during that war greatly furthered the liberation of all Americans from our brutality toward our fellow human beings.  Under Lincoln's leadership we affirmed the two core principles of our Constitution - freedom and equality for all.

The contribution of naturalist Charles Darwin to human freedom was equally significant.  The publication of his On the Origin of Species in 1859 and The Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex in 1871 forever changed our understanding of Humankind and Life on Earth.

Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection liberated all of Humankind from the mental oppression of religious truth.  His theory provided a fact-based, demonstrable explanation of the history of all earthly organisms and placed Humankind squarely within that natural history.  Humans could hencefore seek and find their own explanations for the processes of Life.  They no longer were restricted to passively accepting an absolute, static truth provided by supernatural divination.

Both Lincoln and Darwin should be recognized each February 12th for their immense contributions to human freedom.  "Freedom Day" would be a fitting designation.  The day should be set aside to acknowledge Lincoln's and Darwin's efforts toward our realization of freedom from the bondage of body and spirit at the hands of each other, and our mental freedom from religious dictates regarding Nature and our place in it.

Church of England To Defend Itself Against Atheism

Clergy Told To "Take On" The New Atheists
Leading members of the Anglican Church of England have decided to more vocally challenge the "new atheists" and thereby stem the tide of increasing secularism in the United Kingdom.  The popularity of anti-religious books by British atheists Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens and others over the past ten years is regarded by Anglican leaders as an significant threat to the Church's importance in British society.  They believe the writings and public speeches of Dawkins and Hitchens have led to an increase in secularism in British society.  This, they say, poses a threat to the Church and has prompted high Church leaders, including the Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr. Rowan Williams and the Archbishop of York, Dr. John Sentamu, to commission a report to get to the bottom of the matter.  The report, now published, expresses concern that "religious faith" is being portrayed by the new atheists as a "social problem."  Top among the report's six recommended emphases for the next five years is stated as follows:

"The first is to be explicit about the need to counter attempts to marginalise Christianity and to treat religious faith more generally as a social problem. This is partly about taking on the ‘new atheism’. Bishops have a key role here both as public apologists and as teachers of the faith. Church members look to their leaders to speak out on their behalf and to help them in their own understanding and witness."

The link article claims that increasing secularism may result  in the Church losing it's central place in the public life of England.  The link also says that the Church must respond (to the new atheists) or risk being pushed from the public square.  The next five years will be crucial, the report itself says.

The report:  Challenges for the New Quinquennium

A central issue in all this is the new atheists view that science and religion are incompatible versus the Church of England's stated position one year ago that science and religion are compatible - Atheists Are Wrong to Claim Science and Religion are Incompatible, Church of England Says.  From this link, it is clear that a year ago many Anglican lay and clerical apologists saw no need for the Church to defend itself.  Now their archbishops see a need.

Burundi - Opposition's Marginalization Leading To Dangerous Political Impasse

"Burundi is descending ever deeper into a political impasse that risks reversing a decade’s progress." - International Crisis Group

Burundi - From Electoral Boycott to Political Impasse

Human Evolution: Our Ancestors Left Trees 4.2 Million Years Ago

A new analysis of fossil wrist bones shows our ancestors opted for a new way of life on the ground beginning as early as 4.2 millions ago.  This new information has implications for better understanding an important ecological adaptation our ancestors made on the plains of East and Southern Africa millions of years ago.  Their new ecological relationship is one most paleoanthropologists believe had a significant effect on the emergence of stone tool making and use, a new form of new social organization, and perhaps increased animal protein consumption.  It may also have represented a preadaptation for the later emergence of other unique human biological and cultural characteristics....  JEL

Ancestors of Humans Left Trees 4.2 Million Years Ago
Ancient Footprints Show Human-Like Walking Began Nearly Four Million Years Ago



A reconstructed head of Australopithecus afarensis for an exhibit at the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History. John Gurche/Smithsonian

Top 10 Science Books of 2010

Top 10 Science Books of 2010 by Michael Shermer

In reverse order, #10 at top of list:

• Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway
• The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home by Dan Ariely
• Packing for Mars: The Curious Science of Life in the Void by Mary Roach
•  How Pleasure Works: The New Science of Why We Like What We Like
  by Paul Bloom
•  The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us
  by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons
• What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly
• The Grand Design by Stephen Hawking and Leonard Mlodinow
• The Moral Landscape: How Science Can Determine Human Values
  by Sam Harris
• The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley
• The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks by Rebecca Skloot

Have read The Grand Design and The Moral Landscape and highly recommend both.

Human Evolution: Expansion Of Ancient Humans Out Of Africa And Into Asia Earlier Than Previously Known

New York Times/Science/AAAS
Artifacts unearthed in the United Arab Emirates dating back more than 100,000 years suggest that modern humans first left Africa much earlier than scientists originally believed.



Tools thought to be 127,000 years old were found at Jebel Faya.  New York Times

Tools Suggest Earlier Human Exit From Africa
Humans Migrated Out of Africa Earlier than Previously Thought

South Sudan - Free At Last!

UPDATE:  South Sudan Becomes an Independent Nation, BBC, July 8, 2011

ORIGINAL POST
Southern Sudan Referendum: 99% Vote For Independence



Reverence And Gratitude - Our Humble Place In Our Vast And Beautiful Universe

Brilliant Space Photos From Chandra and Spitzer Orbiting Telescopes

Our View Of The Center Of The Milky Way Galaxy

Sudan - Which Way Abyei?

Photo:  New York Times/Tyler Hicks



The Abyei area between north and south Sudan has not completed its referendum on secession.  Resolution of the area's future could make or break the peaceful birth of Africa's newest state, South Sudan....

Roots of Bitterness in a Region Threaten Sudan’s Future
The Tough Task of Defining Sudan’s North-South Border:

 

Oil Most of Sudan’s oil is produced in the south, but pipelines that run through the north are essential for distribution.

 

Religion Attempts by northern leaders to impose Islamic law throughout Sudan fueled a civil war that lasted from 1983 to 2005.

 

Language The colors above represent areas where different languages and dialects are spoken. Many ethnic groups straddle the 1956 border line.



Good News in South Sudan!

Foreign observers attest to “fairness, credibility” of south Sudan referendum